tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4489481427025151942.post6336100070998805057..comments2023-06-23T08:50:57.164-07:00Comments on Solar Knowledge: Solar Boom Could Slow Down in New JerseyMaureen McHalehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13547236096510278686noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4489481427025151942.post-46216662518333158232011-05-04T12:29:03.533-07:002011-05-04T12:29:03.533-07:00Scott M. Webb • There is no question SREC's wi...Scott M. Webb • There is no question SREC's will decline. It's just a question of how much? The SACP is mandated to decline 2.5% a year until the last published one expires 5/31/16. After that SREC prices will most likely decline substantially. You should think of SREC prices in terms of a Roller Coaster ride...with lower highs and lower lows for the foreseeable future. <br /><br />The ITC will be hear until 2016, there is no doubt about it's continued existence until then. What there is doubt about is whether the ITC will be paid as a cash `grant' after 12/31/11 for Commercial Installations. If it's extended beyond this year as a cash grant the SREC price will fall further, if it's not, SREC prices will trade near the SACP probably in EY'13. <br /><br />Lower SREC prices in New Jersey can be directly attributable to the success of Federal Incentives. Take them away and you'll see SREC prices continue to Trade at 97.5% of the SACP. <br /><br />The goal of the Incentives is to create Economies of Scale...It's working. Panel prices are coming down and efficiencies are improving ever so slowly. <br /><br />As a Solar installer I want to see high SREC's AND Federal Incentives continue to be a part of the Business. As an Economist I want to see an Industry stand as much as possible on it's own (I'm hard pressed to name an Industry without Government support). <br /><br />New Jersey installed more Solar than any State last year. That's a good thing, will that trend continue? Almost certainly not. Will the Industry collapse under lower SREC prices? Certainly not.Scott M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/03155714606695254576noreply@blogger.com