Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Solar Without Subsidies: Installations Grow to 38.3 GW in 2017 as the Market Goes Global

After recent explosive growth capped by a 66% surge to 26.5 GW in 2011, solar installations will grind to a near halt this year -- adding a mere 26.9 GW -- while industry revenues drop from $110 billion in 2011 to $92 million in 2012 due to crashing prices. However, new installations rebound to 38.3 GW in 2017 as the industry learns to navigate a global market fast losing its subsidies, according to a Lux Research report.

A supply glut, caused mainly by Chinese manufacturers, speculation of incentive cuts in Europe and the end of the 1603 Cash Grant in the U.S., fueled the sharp growth in installations last year. “The solar industry’s storied history has created a massive misperception of technology maturity and commodity status,” said Matthew Feinstein, Lux Research Analyst and the lead author of the report titled, “Market Size Update 2012: The Push to a Post-Subsidy Solar Industry.”

“Opportunities remain and extended success is possible for stakeholders, but the market’s shifting geographic profile -- combined with a forced withdrawal from subsidy addiction -- means strategic, surgical moves are needed,” he added.

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